The Toss-up states as of August 20, 2020

I'm going strictly by the polls as presented by the website www.fivethirtyeight.com. To be admitted to this select group, there must be a difference of less than 3% between candidates. This criteria is strictly enforced! Differences in red favor Trump and blue favor Biden. These five states total 93 EV's and going by these polling numbers, Trump wins 60 EV's verses Biden's 33 - but all five races appear to be super tight.

State (EV's)	Trump (%)	Biden(%)	Difference (%)
Texas (38)	47.7	45.7	2.0
Iowa (6)	46.7	45.3	1.4
Georgia (16)	46.8	45.8	1.0
Ohio (18)	46.3	46.7	0.4
North Carolina (15)	46.6	47.8	1.3

 

Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are inclined more towards Biden. The following differences are all in favor of Biden: AZ 3.4%, FL 5.3%, PA 6.5%, WI 6.7% and MI 7.3%. There are the two congressional districts, ME2 and NE2, each have 1 EV, and are generally considered toss-ups.

These leads could evaporate tomorrow. In fact, maybe they already are different! I note one recent surveys show Biden and Trump are polling even in FL with 29 EV's.

Stay tuned,

David Lord